AVB · NYSE · STOCK
AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Stock Analysis
$184.11
52W $160.10 – $198.63
47/100
$26.28B
25.2
0.77
Is AVB Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AvalonBay Communities (AVB) Watch with a composite score of 47/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +13.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -6.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -11.1% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -11.1% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.19 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Negative filing: Delisting notice or failure to satisfy listing rule (7d ago) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
47/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 96%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait
− P/E of 25.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -11.1% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.19 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− Negative filing: Delisting notice or failure to satisfy listing rule (7d ago)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 46.7 to 46.7.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.758
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$183.85
Resistance
$185.53
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$184.71
Below
EMA 21
$186.72
Below
EMA 50
$186.76
Below
EMA 200
$184.62
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
32
Profitability
69
Financial Health
43
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.2×
P/B Ratio
2.16×
PEG Ratio
-2.39
Dividend Yield
3.84%
52W High
$198.63
52W Low
$160.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
906.5%
ROA
474.3%
Gross Margin
5268.9%
Operating Margin
2844.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.76
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.2 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of -2.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.1%; Return on assets of 4.7%; Net margin of 33.4%; Gross margin of 52.7%; Current ratio of 0.07 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.76; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.44); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.3%; EPS growth decelerating (+99.1% -> -52.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -41.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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