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TMUS · NASDAQ · STOCK

T-Mobile US (TMUS) Stock Analysis

Communication Services Updated August 23, 2026
$182.98
52W $165.66 – $258.66
53/100
$196.34B
19.1
0.33
AI Committee Verdict
Watch
53/100
Conviction: Moderate · 67% agreement · 6 analysts
+8.7%
-0.5%
16.67:1
Moderate

Is TMUS Bullish or Bearish?

Mixed. Innellis AI committee rates T-Mobile US Inc. (TMUS) Watch with a composite score of 53/100 , based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement. Last updated August 23, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Buy
Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.02 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Reduce
Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.98 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.56) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • ROE of 18.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
  • Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
  • MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
  • Debt-to-equity of 1.56 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
  • EPS declining -9.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
  • High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.56) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
  • Current ratio of 1.00 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 74%
of 54 Communication Services peers
Value Analyst neutral
56 / 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 18.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Debt-to-equity of 1.56 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst neutral
48 / 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -9.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst neutral
58 / 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst bearish
32 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.56) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst bullish
65 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst neutral
58 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 53.0 to 53.0.

Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
57.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.687
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$182.03
Resistance
$198.85
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$181.25 Above
EMA 21
$180.78 Above
EMA 50
$182.56 Above
EMA 200
$196.69 Below

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
84
Growth
75
Profitability
72
Financial Health
16
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 19.1×
P/B Ratio 3.52×
PEG Ratio -1.93
Dividend Yield 2.15%
52W High $258.66
52W Low $165.66
Quality & Growth
ROE 1856.7%
ROA 501.4%
Gross Margin 5445.6%
Operating Margin 2029.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 2.06
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.5x; PEG ratio of -1.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.6%; Return on assets of 5.0%; Net margin of 11.5%; Gross margin of 54.5%; Current ratio of 0.92 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.06; Free cash flow per share is positive (14.19); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 13.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+20.7% -> +31.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 5.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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