ACHC · NASDAQ · STOCK
Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) Stock Analysis
$29.27
52W $11.43 – $35.83
58/100
$2.72B
-2.3
0.62
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ACHC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.50 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.7x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -50.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 47%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.7x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -50.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.5 to 57.5.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.182
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$26.64
Resistance
$30.16
Bollinger %B
0.86
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$28.64
Above
EMA 21
$28.50
Above
EMA 50
$28.68
Above
EMA 200
$26.46
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
69
Profitability
10
Financial Health
62
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-2.3×
P/B Ratio
1.34×
PEG Ratio
0.00
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$35.83
52W Low
$11.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
-5658.3%
ROA
-1995.1%
Gross Margin
3556.5%
Operating Margin
1006.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.30
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -2.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.3x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -56.6%; Return on assets of -20.0%; Net margin of -33.4%; Gross margin of 35.6%; Current ratio of 1.57 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.30; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.21); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.4%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+428.6% -> +2.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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