ARQT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Stock Analysis
$26.56
52W $19.30 – $31.77
55/100
$3.32B
120.4
1.58
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ARQT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Buy with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.58 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.42 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 76.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 76.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- P/E of 116.0 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 18.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 62%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 15.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 116.0 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 76.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.1 to 55.4.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 62->58 (-4).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
61.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.093
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$21.13
Resistance
$28.60
Bollinger %B
0.68
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$25.35
Above
EMA 21
$25.43
Above
EMA 50
$25.46
Above
EMA 200
$24.39
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
72
Profitability
33
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
120.4×
P/B Ratio
15.73×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$31.77
52W Low
$19.30
Quality & Growth
ROE
-851.9%
ROA
-372.8%
Gross Margin
9114.3%
Operating Margin
738.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.52
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 120.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 15.7x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -8.5%; Return on assets of -3.7%; Net margin of 6.1%; Gross margin of 91.1%; Current ratio of 2.92 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.52; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.30); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 150.6%; EPS growth accelerating (-169.2% -> +222.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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