ARQT · NASDAQ · STOCK
Arcutis Biotherapeutics (ARQT) Stock Analysis
$28.80
52W $19.30 – $31.77
58/100
$3.26B
118.2
1.58
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ARQT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Arcutis Biotherapeutics, Inc. (ARQT) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +17.14 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.86 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 76.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 15.6% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 76.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 115.5 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 18.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 48%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 15.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 115.5 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 76.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.4 to 57.9.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 57->63 (+6); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.063
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$23.13
Resistance
$28.60
Bollinger %B
0.61
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$25.80
Above
EMA 21
$25.64
Above
EMA 50
$25.55
Above
EMA 200
$24.44
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
72
Profitability
33
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
118.2×
P/B Ratio
15.44×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$31.77
52W Low
$19.30
Quality & Growth
ROE
-851.9%
ROA
-372.8%
Gross Margin
9114.3%
Operating Margin
738.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.52
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 118.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 15.4x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -8.5%; Return on assets of -3.7%; Net margin of 6.1%; Gross margin of 91.1%; Current ratio of 2.92 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.52; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.30); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 150.6%; EPS growth accelerating (-169.2% -> +222.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full ARQT Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →