ASML · NASDAQ · STOCK
ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Analysis
$1,641.31
52W $946.11 – $1999.96
60/100
$638.81B
42.4
1.30
Is ASML Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.63 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.37 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2739.42). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 41.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 56.0 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 14.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 27%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 41.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 56.0 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 28 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.1 to 60.4.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 66->62 (-4).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
28.5
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-17.829
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$1572.97
Resistance
$1896.35
Bollinger %B
0.08
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,730.35
Below
EMA 21
$1,744.51
Below
EMA 50
$1,736.57
Below
EMA 200
$1,555.64
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
90
Profitability
96
Financial Health
79
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
42.4×
P/B Ratio
25.80×
PEG Ratio
0.95
Dividend Yield
0.52%
52W High
$1999.96
52W Low
$946.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
4899.7%
ROA
1900.3%
Gross Margin
5433.7%
Operating Margin
3855.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 42.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 25.8x; PEG ratio of 1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 49.0%; Return on assets of 19.0%; Net margin of 34.1%; Gross margin of 54.3%; Current ratio of 1.49 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow per share is positive (55.19); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 17.1%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+6.0% -> +70.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 82.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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