ASML · NASDAQ · STOCK
ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Analysis
$1,740.41
52W $716.20 – $1999.96
63/100
$679.78B
54.4
1.36
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ASML Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.89 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.11 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 21.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 11%
of 287 Technology peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.7 to 63.1.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 67% to 80%.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 62->85 (+22).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 58->35 (-22).
- Value Analyst abstained (was neutral at 49).
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
3.364
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$1248.97
Resistance
$1999.94
Bollinger %B
0.60
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,778.29
Below
EMA 21
$1,763.37
Below
EMA 50
$1,735.74
Above
EMA 200
$1,475.36
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
70
Profitability
95
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
54.4×
P/B Ratio
26.49×
PEG Ratio
3.71
Dividend Yield
0.52%
52W High
$1999.96
52W Low
$716.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
4901.8%
ROA
1901.2%
Gross Margin
5273.3%
Operating Margin
3542.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 54.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 26.5x; PEG ratio of 3.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 49.0%; Return on assets of 19.0%; Net margin of 30.1%; Gross margin of 52.7%; Current ratio of 1.33 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow per share is positive (25.95); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.4%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-2.6% -> +6.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 28.5%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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