ASML · NASDAQ · STOCK
ASML Holding (ASML) Stock Analysis
$1,780.30
52W $946.11 – $1999.96
62/100
$686.18B
58.1
1.30
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is ASML Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.20 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.80 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is price structure making higher highs and higher lows. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 41.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 59.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 14.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Bollinger bandwidth of 20.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 24%
of 287 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 41.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 59.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 20.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 79 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.7 to 61.8.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 62->68 (+6); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.708
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$1530.64
Resistance
$1896.35
Bollinger %B
0.60
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,796.31
Below
EMA 21
$1,769.93
Above
EMA 50
$1,744.30
Above
EMA 200
$1,550.02
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
70
Profitability
95
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
58.1×
P/B Ratio
28.28×
PEG Ratio
3.96
Dividend Yield
0.49%
52W High
$1999.96
52W Low
$946.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
4899.7%
ROA
1900.3%
Gross Margin
5273.3%
Operating Margin
3542.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 58.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 28.3x; PEG ratio of 4.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 49.0%; Return on assets of 19.0%; Net margin of 30.1%; Gross margin of 52.7%; Current ratio of 1.33 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow per share is positive (25.95); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.4%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-2.6% -> +6.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 28.5%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full ASML Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →