MCHP · NASDAQ · STOCK
Microchip Technology (MCHP) Stock Analysis
$80.26
52W $48.52 – $105.91
66/100
$42.99B
109.7
1.74
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MCHP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Microchip Technology (MCHP) Buy with a composite score of 66/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 18, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +8.87 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -11.13 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.53 across 62 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
66/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 13%
of 284 Technology peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.53 across 62 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 58.3 to 66.1.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 60%.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 77->82 (+6).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bearish at 25).
Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.658
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$73.16
Resistance
$83.30
Bollinger %B
0.53
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$79.14
Above
EMA 21
$80.11
Above
EMA 50
$83.15
Below
EMA 200
$78.65
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
40
Growth
85
Profitability
43
Financial Health
88
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
109.7×
P/B Ratio
6.66×
PEG Ratio
0.13
Dividend Yield
2.30%
52W High
$105.91
52W Low
$48.52
Quality & Growth
ROE
314.4%
ROA
140.7%
Gross Margin
6019.4%
Operating Margin
1551.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.84
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 109.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.7x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 3.1%; Return on assets of 1.4%; Net margin of 8.8%; Gross margin of 60.2%; Current ratio of 1.92 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.84; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.05); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.4%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+29.5% -> +33.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 181.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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