ASND · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Stock Analysis
$229.29
52W $186.05 – $282.15
54/100
$14.24B
16.9
0.37
Is ASND Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.56 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.44 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 86.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 113.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 23.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.93 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.93) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 69%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 86.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 23.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 113.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.93) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.8 to 54.4.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.128
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$216.44
Resistance
$241.07
Bollinger %B
0.41
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$228.16
Above
EMA 21
$234.16
Below
EMA 50
$241.81
Below
EMA 200
$233.23
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
64
Growth
55
Profitability
75
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.9×
P/B Ratio
9.17×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$282.15
52W Low
$186.05
Quality & Growth
ROE
13458.2%
ROA
-1682.3%
Gross Margin
9018.6%
Operating Margin
1038.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.2x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 134.6%; Return on assets of -16.8%; Net margin of 71.7%; Gross margin of 90.2%; Current ratio of 2.99 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.31; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.24); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 48.9%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-40.0% -> +193.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 212.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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