AVAV · NASDAQ · STOCK
AeroVironment (AVAV) Stock Analysis
$137.12
52W $134.25 – $411.16
56/100
$6.94B
-23.6
1.36
Is AVAV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AeroVironment (AVAV) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.72 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.28 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 84.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- ROE of only -4.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 24.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 59%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -4.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 84.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 24.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.3 to 56.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
30.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.036
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$135.21
Resistance
$142.96
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$141.37
Below
EMA 21
$146.22
Below
EMA 50
$152.81
Below
EMA 200
$186.58
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
61
Profitability
4
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-23.6×
P/B Ratio
1.55×
PEG Ratio
0.21
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$411.16
52W Low
$134.25
Quality & Growth
ROE
-602.5%
ROA
-463.8%
Gross Margin
2647.1%
Operating Margin
-59.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.19
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -23.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -6.0%; Return on assets of -4.6%; Net margin of -14.5%; Gross margin of 26.5%; Current ratio of 4.26 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.19; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.04); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 136.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+187.5% -> -67.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 84.4%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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