AXSM · NASDAQ · STOCK
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Stock Analysis
$168.40
52W $119.20 – $260.19
53/100
$8.66B
-44.9
0.60
Is AXSM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.15 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.85 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 8 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 56.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 8 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 71.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -255.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.25 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- RSI at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 81%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 71.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 56.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 12 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 8 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.5 to 52.9.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
11.9
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-2.146
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$152.55
Resistance
$191.35
Bollinger %B
0.12
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$177.49
Below
EMA 21
$188.13
Below
EMA 50
$201.14
Below
EMA 200
$195.55
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
36
Profitability
25
Financial Health
26
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-44.9×
P/B Ratio
104.08×
PEG Ratio
-1.58
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$260.19
52W Low
$119.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
-20745.7%
ROA
-2655.5%
Gross Margin
9323.6%
Operating Margin
-2427.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -44.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 104.1x; PEG ratio of -1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -207.5%; Return on assets of -26.6%; Net margin of -24.7%; Gross margin of 93.2%; Current ratio of 1.43 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.63; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.39); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 14.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-125.0% -> +21.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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