AXSM · NASDAQ · STOCK
Axsome Therapeutics (AXSM) Stock Analysis
$206.56
52W $112.90 – $260.19
54/100
$10.64B
-55.1
0.60
Is AXSM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Axsome Therapeutics, Inc. (AXSM) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.85 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.15 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 56.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 71.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -255.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.25 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 88%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 71.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 56.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.25) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.1 to 54.1.
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.797
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$152.55
Resistance
$257.81
Bollinger %B
0.37
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$206.38
Above
EMA 21
$210.30
Below
EMA 50
$217.43
Below
EMA 200
$195.92
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
36
Profitability
25
Financial Health
26
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-55.1×
P/B Ratio
127.77×
PEG Ratio
-1.94
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$260.19
52W Low
$112.90
Quality & Growth
ROE
-20745.7%
ROA
-2655.5%
Gross Margin
9323.6%
Operating Margin
-2427.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -55.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 127.8x; PEG ratio of -1.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -207.5%; Return on assets of -26.6%; Net margin of -24.7%; Gross margin of 93.2%; Current ratio of 1.43 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.63; Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.39); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 14.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-125.0% -> +21.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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