ERAS · NASDAQ · STOCK
Erasca (ERAS) Stock Analysis
$16.03
52W $2.10 – $24.28
54/100
$5.56B
-16.9
0.62
Is ERAS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Erasca, Inc. (ERAS) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.62 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.38 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- ROE of only -80.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
- News sentiment is negative (-0.50 across 2 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 69%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -80.4% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 19.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.50 across 2 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.4 to 54.4.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.222
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$8.71
Resistance
$20.37
Bollinger %B
0.90
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.96
Above
EMA 21
$15.18
Above
EMA 50
$15.91
Above
EMA 200
$13.61
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
42
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-16.9×
P/B Ratio
13.79×
PEG Ratio
0.15
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$24.28
52W Low
$2.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
-3830.2%
ROA
-3143.9%
Gross Margin
0.0%
Operating Margin
0.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.12
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -16.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 13.8x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -38.3%; Return on assets of -31.4%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.0%; Current ratio of 8.29 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.12; Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.32); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 34.7%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-500.0% -> +76.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -16.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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