FAST · NASDAQ · STOCK
Fastenal (FAST) Stock Analysis
$50.75
52W $38.97 – $52.92
61/100
$58.24B
43.0
0.69
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is FAST Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Fastenal (FAST) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.55 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.45 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 34.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 21 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 42.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 23%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 34.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 42.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 21 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.1 to 61.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.037
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$47.65
Resistance
$52.91
Bollinger %B
0.76
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$50.41
Above
EMA 21
$50.18
Above
EMA 50
$49.61
Above
EMA 200
$46.95
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
46
Profitability
85
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
43.0×
P/B Ratio
14.31×
PEG Ratio
3.19
Dividend Yield
1.89%
52W High
$52.92
52W Low
$38.97
Quality & Growth
ROE
3191.0%
ROA
2490.4%
Gross Margin
4470.1%
Operating Margin
2029.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.11
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 43.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 14.3x; PEG ratio of 3.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 31.9%; Return on assets of 24.9%; Net margin of 15.5%; Gross margin of 44.7%; Current ratio of 4.18 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.11; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.90); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.3%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+15.4% -> +10.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 13.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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