NASDAQ · STOCK
Fastenal
$46.12
52W $38.97 – $50.63
64/100
$53.40B
41.0
0.71
Price History (6M)
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Executive Summary
6 analysts weighed in with 50% agreement on a bullish lean. Risk Analyst: Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Overall recommendation: BUY.
Executive Summary
6 analysts weighed in with 50% agreement on a bullish lean. Risk Analyst: Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Overall recommendation: BUY.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily and weekly trends are both bullish — multi-timeframe alignment, highest confidence.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.008) — bearish momentum.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Three Black Crows.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 6.5% downside vs 4.2% upside.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 07, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
75%
Analysts
4
Conviction
High
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 41.0 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.03) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
73
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.47 across 15 articles, 14d)
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.008
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$43.47
Resistance
$48.45
Bollinger %B
0.45
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$47.25
Below
EMA 21
$46.72
Below
EMA 50
$45.98
Above
EMA 200
$44.59
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
57
Profitability
85
Financial Health
100
Valuation
P/E Ratio
41.0×
P/B Ratio
11.68×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
2.04%
52W High
$50.63
52W Low
$38.97
Quality & Growth
ROE
3325.0%
ROA
2549.0%
Gross Margin
4489.0%
Operating Margin
2025.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
+1094.0%
Debt / Equity
0.03
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 41.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 11.7x; Revenue growth (YoY) of 10.9%; EPS growth (YoY) of 12.7%; Return on equity of 33.2%; Return on assets of 25.5%; Net margin of 15.4%; Gross margin of 44.9%; Current ratio of 4.85 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.03; Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.8%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-10.3% -> +15.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
Key Risks
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.008) — bearish momentum.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Three Black Crows.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 6.5% downside vs 4.2% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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