LLY · NYSE · STOCK
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Analysis
$1,178.18
52W $783.85 – $1292.65
56/100
$1.11T
39.5
0.45
Is LLY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.74 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.26 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 49.6% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.60) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 92.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 49.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 94.6% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 40.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 38.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.60 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.60) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 57%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 92.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 40.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 49.6% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.60) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.16 across 248 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.3 to 56.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.630
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$1113.50
Resistance
$1248.53
Bollinger %B
0.73
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,167.53
Above
EMA 21
$1,165.14
Above
EMA 50
$1,163.97
Above
EMA 200
$1,080.24
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
34
Growth
66
Profitability
100
Financial Health
45
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
39.5×
P/B Ratio
31.06×
PEG Ratio
0.42
Dividend Yield
0.57%
52W High
$1292.65
52W Low
$783.85
Quality & Growth
ROE
7778.4%
ROA
1835.1%
Gross Margin
8339.9%
Operating Margin
4971.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.62
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 39.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 31.1x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 77.8%; Return on assets of 18.4%; Net margin of 33.5%; Gross margin of 83.4%; Current ratio of 1.35 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.62; Free cash flow per share is positive (22.47); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 38.1%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+13.4% -> -2.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 32.8%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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