MDGL · NASDAQ · STOCK
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Analysis
$471.82
52W $393.61 – $615.00
54/100
$10.90B
-36.6
-1.05
Is MDGL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.92 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.08 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 149.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 21.9x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 149.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 21.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -56.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- RSI at 14 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- News sentiment is negative (-0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 71%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 21.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 149.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 14 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.1 to 54.1.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
14.1
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-4.214
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$451.84
Resistance
$549.67
Bollinger %B
-0.01
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$491.32
Below
EMA 21
$505.24
Below
EMA 50
$515.36
Below
EMA 200
$500.65
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
51
Profitability
25
Financial Health
96
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-36.6×
P/B Ratio
26.25×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$615.00
52W Low
$393.61
Quality & Growth
ROE
-4783.3%
ROA
-2288.7%
Gross Margin
9147.8%
Operating Margin
-2512.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.66
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -36.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 26.3x; PEG ratio of 106.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -47.8%; Return on assets of -22.9%; Net margin of -25.3%; Gross margin of 91.5%; Current ratio of 3.20 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.66; Free cash flow per share is negative (-7.08); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 24.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-26.5% -> +38.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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