MDGL · NASDAQ · STOCK
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL) Stock Analysis
$541.05
52W $393.61 – $615.00
63/100
$12.50B
-42.0
-0.99
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MDGL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Madrigal Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (MDGL) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated September 06, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.90 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.10 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 149.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 21.9x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 149.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 21.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -56.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 06, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 35%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 21.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 149.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2704.43)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.1 to 63.1.
Comparing 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-06 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.232
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$451.84
Resistance
$558.32
Bollinger %B
0.73
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$537.42
Above
EMA 21
$531.12
Above
EMA 50
$525.38
Above
EMA 200
$497.29
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
51
Profitability
25
Financial Health
96
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-42.0×
P/B Ratio
30.11×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$615.00
52W Low
$393.61
Quality & Growth
ROE
-4783.3%
ROA
-2288.7%
Gross Margin
9147.8%
Operating Margin
-2512.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.66
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -42.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 30.1x; PEG ratio of 121.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -47.8%; Return on assets of -22.9%; Net margin of -25.3%; Gross margin of 91.5%; Current ratio of 3.20 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.66; Free cash flow per share is negative (-7.08); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 24.0%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-26.5% -> +38.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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