MEDP · NASDAQ · STOCK
Medpace (MEDP) Stock Analysis
$612.55
52W $373.00 – $677.90
63/100
$17.08B
35.2
1.18
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MEDP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Medpace (MEDP) Buy with a composite score of 63/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +11.72 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -8.28 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 26.8% yoy. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 110.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 26.8% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 34.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 34.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.74 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 11%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 110.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 34.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 26.8% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.74 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 63.3 to 63.3.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.060
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$531.03
Resistance
$623.13
Bollinger %B
0.47
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$609.43
Above
EMA 21
$608.98
Above
EMA 50
$594.71
Above
EMA 200
$534.25
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
34
Growth
76
Profitability
78
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
35.2×
P/B Ratio
39.93×
PEG Ratio
1.36
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$677.90
52W Low
$373.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
9826.9%
ROA
2283.6%
Gross Margin
2876.1%
Operating Margin
2096.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.33
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 35.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 39.9x; PEG ratio of 1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 98.3%; Return on assets of 22.8%; Net margin of 17.7%; Gross margin of 28.8%; Current ratio of 0.73 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.33; Free cash flow per share is positive (25.91); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-8.4% -> -0.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 37.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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