MO · NYSE · STOCK
Altria Group (MO) Stock Analysis
$71.68
52W $54.70 – $77.06
52/100
$119.69B
15.1
0.46
Is MO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Altria Group Inc. (MO) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.12 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.88 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 15.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 149.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 9.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 10.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -8.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 77 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 77%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 15.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 77 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.1 to 51.9.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 50% to 33%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 48->61 (+13); +1 bearish signal(s); +2 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
76.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.315
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$68.10
Resistance
$74.55
Bollinger %B
1.01
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$69.55
Above
EMA 21
$69.05
Above
EMA 50
$69.02
Above
EMA 200
$67.52
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
58
Profitability
75
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.1×
P/B Ratio
-44.92×
PEG Ratio
-1.78
Dividend Yield
5.98%
52W High
$77.06
52W Low
$54.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
-19837.2%
ROA
1983.9%
Gross Margin
6994.9%
Operating Margin
5804.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-9.21
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -44.9x; PEG ratio of -1.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -198.4%; Return on assets of 19.8%; Net margin of 37.8%; Gross margin of 69.9%; Current ratio of 0.44 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -9.21; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.97); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+1.5% -> +12.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 2.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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