MO · NASDAQ · STOCK
Altria Group Inc.
$68.33
52W $54.70 – $77.06
51/100
$114.13B
14.4
0.49
Is MO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Altria Group Inc. (MO) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.45 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.55 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 10.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 149.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.3% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 10.38 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -8.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 50 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 14.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 26.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -0.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 10.38) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.2 to 50.5.
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.545
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$68.10
Resistance
$68.58
Bollinger %B
0.22
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$69.27
Below
EMA 21
$70.54
Below
EMA 50
$70.86
Below
EMA 200
$67.10
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
58
Profitability
75
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.4×
P/B Ratio
-42.83×
PEG Ratio
-1.70
Dividend Yield
6.20%
52W High
$77.06
52W Low
$54.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
-19837.2%
ROA
1983.9%
Gross Margin
7098.6%
Operating Margin
5594.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-9.21
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -42.8x; PEG ratio of -1.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -198.4%; Return on assets of 19.8%; Net margin of 36.5%; Gross margin of 71.0%; Current ratio of 0.44 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -9.21; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.97); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 4.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+1.5% -> +12.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 2.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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