PM · NYSE · STOCK
Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Analysis
$201.19
52W $142.11 – $207.76
52/100
$313.58B
28.9
0.36
Is PM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Philip Morris International (PM) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.09 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 575.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.5% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 32.0% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 28.7 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 592.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 80.98 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 77 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 575.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 28.7 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 32.0% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 77 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 80.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.1 to 52.1.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
76.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.979
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$181.65
Resistance
$207.72
Bollinger %B
1.12
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$194.33
Above
EMA 21
$192.17
Above
EMA 50
$189.97
Above
EMA 200
$179.65
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
81
Growth
67
Profitability
75
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.9×
P/B Ratio
-36.63×
PEG Ratio
0.91
Dividend Yield
2.99%
52W High
$207.76
52W Low
$142.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
-11354.8%
ROA
1640.2%
Gross Margin
6751.4%
Operating Margin
3774.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-5.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.9 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -36.6x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -113.5%; Return on assets of 16.4%; Net margin of 25.6%; Gross margin of 67.5%; Current ratio of 0.98 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -5.72; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.14); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.4%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+16.0% -> +12.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 15.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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