PM · NYSE · STOCK
Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Analysis
$191.43
52W $142.11 – $207.76
53/100
$298.41B
27.5
0.40
Is PM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Philip Morris International (PM) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.85 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.15 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 80.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 575.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 5.5% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 32.0% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 27.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 592.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 80.98 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 80.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 72%
of 72 Consumer Defensive peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 575.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 27.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 32.0% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 80.98) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.1 to 53.1.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.030
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$155.73
Resistance
$193.02
Bollinger %B
0.61
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$189.28
Above
EMA 21
$188.82
Above
EMA 50
$186.25
Above
EMA 200
$175.28
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
83
Growth
67
Profitability
75
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.5×
P/B Ratio
-34.86×
PEG Ratio
0.86
Dividend Yield
3.07%
52W High
$207.76
52W Low
$142.11
Quality & Growth
ROE
-11354.8%
ROA
1640.2%
Gross Margin
6751.4%
Operating Margin
3774.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-5.72
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.5 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -34.9x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -113.5%; Return on assets of 16.4%; Net margin of 25.6%; Gross margin of 67.5%; Current ratio of 0.98 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -5.72; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.14); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.4%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+16.0% -> +12.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 15.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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