MRNA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Moderna (MRNA) Stock Analysis
$224.91
52W $22.28 – $225.00
60/100
$89.28B
-28.2
0.90
Is MRNA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Moderna (MRNA) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.32 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.68 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.3x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -39.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -27.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- RSI at 75 is in overbought territory — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 87 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 49.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 33%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.3x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -39.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -27.6% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 75 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.07) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 49.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.9 to 59.7.
- Conviction changed from high to moderate.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 83% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 61->54 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
75.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
-0.021
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.97
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$198.86
Above
EMA 21
$182.52
Above
EMA 50
$148.77
Above
EMA 200
$86.20
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
88
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-28.2×
P/B Ratio
13.18×
PEG Ratio
3.34
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$225.00
52W Low
$22.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
-3262.4%
ROA
-2287.2%
Gross Margin
-1256.7%
Operating Margin
-14901.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.19
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -28.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 13.2x; PEG ratio of 3.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -32.6%; Return on assets of -22.9%; Net margin of -141.4%; Gross margin of -12.6%; Current ratio of 2.29 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.19; Free cash flow per share is negative (-3.09); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.3%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-61.1% -> +42.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 7.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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