MRNA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Moderna
$60.17
52W $22.28 – $85.60
60/100
$23.48B
-7.4
0.90
Is MRNA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Moderna (MRNA) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 09, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.47 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.53 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 30.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 30.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 09, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 95 Healthcare peers
Growth Analyst
bullish
82
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 30.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.5 to 59.5.
Comparing 2026-08-08 to 2026-08-09 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.258
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$44.04
Resistance
$59.40
Bollinger %B
0.52
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$56.76
Above
EMA 21
$58.69
Above
EMA 50
$58.51
Above
EMA 200
$48.57
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
90
Growth
88
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-7.4×
P/B Ratio
3.47×
PEG Ratio
0.88
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$85.60
52W Low
$22.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
-3262.4%
ROA
-2287.2%
Gross Margin
-1256.7%
Operating Margin
-14901.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.19
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -7.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.5x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -32.6%; Return on assets of -22.9%; Net margin of -141.4%; Gross margin of -12.6%; Current ratio of 2.29 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.19; Free cash flow per share is negative (-3.09); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.3%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-61.1% -> +42.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 7.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full MRNA Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →