NVS · NYSE · STOCK
Novartis (NVS) Stock Analysis
$138.74
52W $121.57 – $170.46
50/100
$263.48B
21.3
0.46
Is NVS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Novartis AG (NVS) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.78 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.22 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 26.0% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -3.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 29 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 29.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -3.5% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 29 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.2 to 50.2.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
28.8
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-2.224
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$121.78
Resistance
$156.27
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$143.58
Below
EMA 21
$148.91
Below
EMA 50
$151.74
Below
EMA 200
$147.38
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
66
Growth
70
Profitability
100
Financial Health
36
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.3×
P/B Ratio
6.42×
PEG Ratio
-4.74
Dividend Yield
3.22%
52W High
$170.46
52W Low
$121.57
Quality & Growth
ROE
3046.9%
ROA
1216.2%
Gross Margin
7428.8%
Operating Margin
2986.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.4x; PEG ratio of -4.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 30.5%; Return on assets of 12.2%; Net margin of 23.1%; Gross margin of 74.3%; Current ratio of 0.86 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.18; Free cash flow per share is positive (8.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-2.0% -> +21.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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