OMDA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Omada Health (OMDA) Stock Analysis
$18.70
52W $10.28 – $26.92
58/100
$1.09B
269.5
2.02
Is OMDA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Omada Health (OMDA) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.91 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.09 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 260.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 1.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- RSI at 29 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 46%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 260.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 29 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 66.5 to 58.1.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 80->58 (-22); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 58->48 (-10); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
28.9
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.091
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$14.20
Resistance
$24.50
Bollinger %B
-0.04
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$20.01
Below
EMA 21
$20.47
Below
EMA 50
$20.92
Below
EMA 200
$19.43
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Growth
94
Profitability
27
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
269.5×
P/B Ratio
4.32×
PEG Ratio
0.44
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$26.92
52W Low
$10.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
-556.3%
ROA
-418.4%
Gross Margin
6818.6%
Operating Margin
-15.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 269.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.3x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -5.6%; Return on assets of -4.2%; Net margin of 1.4%; Gross margin of 68.2%; Current ratio of 3.91 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 590.8%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-162.5% -> +260.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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