OMDA · NASDAQ · STOCK
Omada Health (OMDA) Stock Analysis
$21.55
52W $10.28 – $26.92
64/100
$1.28B
317.4
2.02
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is OMDA Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Omada Health (OMDA) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.97 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.03 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 2 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 306.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 1.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 8%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 306.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 2 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 66.7 to 64.0.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 90->74 (-16); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.218
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$18.31
Resistance
$24.50
Bollinger %B
0.96
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$20.79
Above
EMA 21
$20.84
Above
EMA 50
$21.12
Above
EMA 200
$19.43
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
48
Growth
94
Profitability
27
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
317.4×
P/B Ratio
5.09×
PEG Ratio
0.52
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$26.92
52W Low
$10.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
-556.3%
ROA
-418.4%
Gross Margin
6818.6%
Operating Margin
-15.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 317.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.1x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -5.6%; Return on assets of -4.2%; Net margin of 1.4%; Gross margin of 68.2%; Current ratio of 3.91 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 590.8%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-162.5% -> +260.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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