RARE · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc.
$26.96
52W $18.29 – $39.89
56/100
$2.66B
-4.6
0.31
Is RARE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.25 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.75 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 27.5% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 27.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 27.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.004
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$25.82
Resistance
$27.40
Bollinger %B
0.50
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$26.28
Above
EMA 21
$27.10
Below
EMA 50
$27.29
Below
EMA 200
$27.50
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Profitability
50
Financial Health
89
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-4.6×
P/B Ratio
-9.44×
PEG Ratio
0.74
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$39.89
52W Low
$18.29
Quality & Growth
ROE
—
ROA
-3753.3%
Gross Margin
8312.4%
Operating Margin
-7377.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-4.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of -4.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -9.4x; PEG ratio of 0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 718.8%; Return on assets of -37.5%; Net margin of -81.8%; Gross margin of 83.1%; Current ratio of 1.73 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -4.13; Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.80); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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