RARE · NASDAQ · STOCK
Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical (RARE) Stock Analysis
$15.49
52W $12.73 – $39.89
53/100
$1.52B
-2.7
0.32
Is RARE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.52 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.48 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -414.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.41 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.41) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 15.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.41) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.5 to 53.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.497
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$15.02
Above
EMA 21
$15.77
Below
EMA 50
$18.94
Below
EMA 200
$24.39
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
48
Profitability
50
Financial Health
89
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-2.7×
P/B Ratio
-5.42×
PEG Ratio
0.42
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$39.89
52W Low
$12.73
Quality & Growth
ROE
—
ROA
-3753.3%
Gross Margin
8312.4%
Operating Margin
-7377.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-4.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -2.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -5.4x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 718.8%; Return on assets of -37.5%; Net margin of -81.8%; Gross margin of 83.1%; Current ratio of 1.73 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -4.13; Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.80); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 27.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-42.6% -> +51.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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