SGRY · NASDAQ · STOCK
Surgery Partners (SGRY) Stock Analysis
$14.73
52W $11.41 – $23.44
53/100
$1.90B
-21.1
1.91
Is SGRY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Surgery Partners, Inc. (SGRY) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.05 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.95 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.16) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -5.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.16 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -21.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.16) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 84%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -5.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -21.4% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.16) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.5 to 53.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.124
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$13.15
Resistance
$15.16
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.16
Above
EMA 21
$14.07
Above
EMA 50
$14.28
Above
EMA 200
$15.33
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
76
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-21.1×
P/B Ratio
1.12×
PEG Ratio
-0.53
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$23.44
52W Low
$11.41
Quality & Growth
ROE
-454.8%
ROA
-94.5%
Gross Margin
2137.1%
Operating Margin
1189.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.40
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -21.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -4.5%; Return on assets of -0.9%; Net margin of -2.6%; Gross margin of 21.4%; Current ratio of 1.95 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.40; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.46); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 68.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-125.0% -> +433.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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