TAK · NYSE · STOCK
Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) Stock Analysis
$18.73
52W $12.99 – $19.10
59/100
$59.60B
51.2
0.09
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TAK Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (TAK) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.17 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.83 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 4.4% pays you to wait — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
Bear Case
- ROE of only -2.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 40%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.2x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -2.2% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.8 to 58.8.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.032
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$14.86
Resistance
$18.82
Bollinger %B
0.62
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$18.38
Above
EMA 21
$18.39
Above
EMA 50
$18.09
Above
EMA 200
$17.04
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
56
Growth
90
Profitability
36
Financial Health
60
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
51.2×
P/B Ratio
1.21×
PEG Ratio
1.66
Dividend Yield
3.46%
52W High
$19.10
52W Low
$12.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
260.4%
ROA
131.0%
Gross Margin
6214.7%
Operating Margin
1052.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 51.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 1.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.6%; Return on assets of 1.3%; Net margin of 3.9%; Gross margin of 62.1%; Current ratio of 1.14 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (224.07); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 28.4%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-123.7% -> +553.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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