TMDX · NASDAQ · STOCK
TransMedics Group (TMDX) Stock Analysis
$77.79
52W $60.10 – $156.00
55/100
$2.69B
17.6
1.93
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TMDX Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Buy with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +20.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — +0.00 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 25.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 33.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 105.5% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 8.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 16.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 8.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 16.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 59.0 to 55.0.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 60% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst joined: bearish at 35.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
33.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.681
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$68.13
Resistance
$80.64
Bollinger %B
0.05
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$80.77
Below
EMA 21
$82.88
Below
EMA 50
$83.58
Below
EMA 200
$92.71
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
74
Profitability
99
Financial Health
71
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.6×
P/B Ratio
5.20×
PEG Ratio
0.16
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$156.00
52W Low
$60.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
4022.2%
ROA
1781.1%
Gross Margin
5869.4%
Operating Margin
1220.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.68
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.2x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 40.2%; Return on assets of 17.8%; Net margin of 22.7%; Gross margin of 58.7%; Current ratio of 6.62 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.67; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.29); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 8.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-43.4% -> +46.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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