TMDX · NASDAQ · STOCK
TransMedics Group, Inc.
$89.39
52W $60.10 – $156.00
60/100
$3.09B
20.2
1.88
Is TMDX Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.78 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.22 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 25.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 26.6% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 33.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 105.5% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 8.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 77 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 46%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 8.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 77 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
76.9
Overbought
MACD Histogram
1.421
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$60.17
Resistance
$120.62
Bollinger %B
1.08
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$82.59
Above
EMA 21
$78.76
Above
EMA 50
$78.17
Above
EMA 200
$96.20
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
70
Profitability
99
Financial Health
71
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.2×
P/B Ratio
5.96×
PEG Ratio
0.19
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$156.00
52W Low
$60.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
4022.2%
ROA
1781.1%
Gross Margin
5869.4%
Operating Margin
1220.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.68
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 20.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.0x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 40.2%; Return on assets of 17.8%; Net margin of 22.7%; Gross margin of 58.7%; Current ratio of 6.62 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.67; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.29); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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