TMDX · NASDAQ · STOCK
TransMedics Group (TMDX) Stock Analysis
$87.44
52W $60.10 – $156.00
57/100
$3.04B
19.9
1.88
Is TMDX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates TransMedics Group, Inc. (TMDX) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.27 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.73 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 25.8% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 33.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 105.5% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 9 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 8.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 192 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 8.8x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 25.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 9 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.7 to 56.7.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
53.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.749
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$68.13
Resistance
$120.62
Bollinger %B
0.45
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$86.46
Above
EMA 21
$86.57
Above
EMA 50
$84.32
Above
EMA 200
$94.56
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
71
Growth
74
Profitability
99
Financial Health
71
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.9×
P/B Ratio
5.88×
PEG Ratio
0.18
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$156.00
52W Low
$60.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
4022.2%
ROA
1781.1%
Gross Margin
5869.4%
Operating Margin
1220.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.68
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.9x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 40.2%; Return on assets of 17.8%; Net margin of 22.7%; Gross margin of 58.7%; Current ratio of 6.62 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.67; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.29); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 8.9%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-43.4% -> +46.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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