AES · NYSE · STOCK
AES (AES) Stock Analysis
$14.77
52W $12.33 – $17.65
59/100
$10.53B
5.6
0.95
Is AES Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AES Corporation (AES) Watch with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 5 analysts with 60% agreement.
Last updated August 24, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.17 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. The main limiting factor is growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 24, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
60%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 7%
of 56 Utilities peers
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.4 to 59.2.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 60%.
- Bullish support removed: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Risk Analyst.
- Analyst(s) abstained: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 53->35 (-18).
- Risk Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 45->70 (+25).
- Value Analyst abstained (was bullish at 61).
Comparing 2026-08-23 to 2026-08-24 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.001
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$14.70
Resistance
$14.87
Bollinger %B
0.62
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.74
Above
EMA 21
$14.74
Above
EMA 50
$14.71
Above
EMA 200
$14.43
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
97
Growth
52
Profitability
40
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.6×
P/B Ratio
2.13×
PEG Ratio
0.07
Dividend Yield
4.77%
52W High
$17.65
52W Low
$12.33
Quality & Growth
ROE
1378.0%
ROA
183.3%
Gross Margin
2029.3%
Operating Margin
1748.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
6.50
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.1x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.8%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 14.6%; Gross margin of 20.3%; Current ratio of 0.75 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 6.50; Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.41); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 15.1%; EPS growth decelerating (-10.7% -> -34.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 67.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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