AES · NYSE · STOCK
AES (AES) Stock Analysis
$14.93
52W $13.21 – $17.65
58/100
$10.65B
5.7
0.95
Is AES Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates AES Corporation (AES) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.60 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.40 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 5.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 43.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.9% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 84.8% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 7.36 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.36) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 12%
of 56 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 5.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 7.36 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 84.8% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.36) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.7 to 58.4.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->68 (+10).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
69.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.003
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$14.70
Resistance
$15.50
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$14.91
Above
EMA 21
$14.87
Above
EMA 50
$14.82
Above
EMA 200
$14.55
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
97
Growth
52
Profitability
40
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.7×
P/B Ratio
2.16×
PEG Ratio
0.07
Dividend Yield
4.71%
52W High
$17.65
52W Low
$13.21
Quality & Growth
ROE
1378.0%
ROA
183.3%
Gross Margin
2029.3%
Operating Margin
1748.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
6.50
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.8%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 14.6%; Gross margin of 20.3%; Current ratio of 0.75 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 6.50; Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.41); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 15.1%; EPS growth decelerating (-10.7% -> -34.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 67.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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