AGNC · NASDAQ · STOCK
AGNC Investment (AGNC) Stock Analysis
$9.89
52W $9.63 – $12.19
56/100
$11.43B
5.1
1.30
Is AGNC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.42 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.58 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is revenue growing 56.3% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. The main limiting factor is high leverage (debt-to-equity 8.21) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 5.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 16.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 56.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 329.1% YoY — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 8.21 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 13 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.21) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 33%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 5.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 8.21 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 56.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 13 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.21) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.6 to 55.6.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
13.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.088
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$9.85
Resistance
$10.44
Bollinger %B
-0.04
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$10.32
Below
EMA 21
$10.55
Below
EMA 50
$10.67
Below
EMA 200
$10.60
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
51
Profitability
70
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.1×
P/B Ratio
0.92×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
14.46%
52W High
$12.19
52W Low
$9.63
Quality & Growth
ROE
1347.5%
ROA
145.1%
Gross Margin
7570.5%
Operating Margin
11279.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.9x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.5%; Return on assets of 1.5%; Net margin of 72.0%; Gross margin of 75.7%; Current ratio of 0.02 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.16; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.77); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+20.0% -> -4.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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