AGNC · NASDAQ · STOCK
AGNC Investment (AGNC) Stock Analysis
$8.68
52W $8.41 – $12.19
53/100
$9.95B
4.4
1.34
Is AGNC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.54 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.46 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 56.3% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 4.5 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 16.5% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 56.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 329.1% YoY — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 8.21 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 26 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 51%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 4.5 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 8.21 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 56.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bearish
31
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.21) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.5 to 53.5.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
26.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.059
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$7.85
Resistance
$10.44
Bollinger %B
0.19
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$8.87
Below
EMA 21
$9.34
Below
EMA 50
$9.92
Below
EMA 200
$10.38
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
51
Profitability
70
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
4.4×
P/B Ratio
0.80×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
16.61%
52W High
$12.19
52W Low
$8.41
Quality & Growth
ROE
1347.5%
ROA
145.1%
Gross Margin
7570.5%
Operating Margin
11279.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 4.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.8x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.5%; Return on assets of 1.5%; Net margin of 72.0%; Gross margin of 75.7%; Current ratio of 0.02 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.16; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.77); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 2.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+20.0% -> -4.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full AGNC Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →