AGNC · NASDAQ · STOCK
AGNC Investment Corp.
$10.88
52W $9.37 – $12.19
61/100
$12.50B
5.5
1.31
Is AGNC Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates AGNC Investment Corp. (AGNC) Buy with a composite score of 61/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.61 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.39 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 56.3% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 8.21) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 5.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 13.4% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 56.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 329.1% YoY — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 8.21 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.21) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.01 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
61/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 20%
of 78 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 5.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 8.21 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 56.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 8.21) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.006
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$10.06
Resistance
$11.12
Bollinger %B
0.55
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$10.77
Above
EMA 21
$10.79
Above
EMA 50
$10.75
Above
EMA 200
$10.58
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Profitability
70
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.5×
P/B Ratio
1.00×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
13.22%
52W High
$12.19
52W Low
$9.37
Quality & Growth
ROE
1347.5%
ROA
145.1%
Gross Margin
7570.5%
Operating Margin
11279.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 5.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 13.5%; Return on assets of 1.5%; Net margin of 72.0%; Gross margin of 75.7%; Current ratio of 0.02 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.16; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.77); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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