CG · NASDAQ · STOCK
Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Analysis
$36.55
52W $37.05 – $69.85
48/100
$13.41B
36.8
1.87
Is CG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 14, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.79 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.21 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.33) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.3% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 36.5 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.33 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -41.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -71.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 23 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 14, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 98%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 4.3% pays you to wait
− P/E of 36.5 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -41.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.33) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 51.2 to 48.2.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 80->65 (-15).
- News Analyst: score 55->60 (+4).
- Portfolio Manager: score 30->35 (+5).
- Technical Analyst: score 56->49 (-8); +3 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-13 to 2026-10-14 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
16.3
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.068
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$33.03
Resistance
$52.16
Bollinger %B
-0.20
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$37.99
Below
EMA 21
$39.60
Below
EMA 50
$42.20
Below
EMA 200
$47.23
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
69
Growth
64
Profitability
61
Financial Health
13
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
36.8×
P/B Ratio
1.85×
PEG Ratio
-0.52
Dividend Yield
3.76%
52W High
$69.85
52W Low
$37.05
Quality & Growth
ROE
1403.6%
ROA
277.8%
Gross Margin
7066.9%
Operating Margin
1911.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.98
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 36.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 14.0%; Return on assets of 2.8%; Net margin of 9.2%; Gross margin of 70.7%; Current ratio of 0.61 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.98; Free cash flow per share is negative (-5.58); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 13.5%; EPS growth accelerating (-11.9% -> +20.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 17.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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