UPST · NASDAQ · STOCK
Upstart Holdings
$30.73
52W $23.96 – $76.95
55/100
$2.98B
50.0
2.17
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is UPST Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Upstart Holdings (UPST) Buy with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 09, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.53 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.47 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 46.3% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 50.1 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 46.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.48 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 50.1 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 09, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 87%
of 142 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
28
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 50.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 46.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 16 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.5 to 55.5.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-08 to 2026-08-09 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.387
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$26.23
Resistance
$35.80
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$29.49
Above
EMA 21
$29.67
Above
EMA 50
$30.42
Above
EMA 200
$36.28
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
55
Growth
85
Profitability
44
Financial Health
35
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
50.0×
P/B Ratio
3.76×
PEG Ratio
0.04
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$76.95
52W Low
$23.96
Quality & Growth
ROE
671.0%
ROA
180.2%
Gross Margin
7444.1%
Operating Margin
416.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 50.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.8x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.7%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 5.2%; Gross margin of 74.4%; Current ratio of 1.64 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.49; Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.52); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.3%; EPS growth accelerating (-34.8% -> +96.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 63.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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