UPST · NASDAQ · STOCK
Upstart Holdings (UPST) Stock Analysis
$24.09
52W $22.55 – $55.22
56/100
$2.31B
38.8
2.17
Is UPST Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Upstart Holdings (UPST) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.07 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.93 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 46.3% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 46.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 38.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 74%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 38.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 46.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.9 to 55.9.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.213
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$23.96
Resistance
$35.80
Bollinger %B
0.45
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$23.94
Above
EMA 21
$24.63
Below
EMA 50
$26.45
Below
EMA 200
$32.80
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
61
Growth
84
Profitability
44
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
38.8×
P/B Ratio
2.92×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$55.22
52W Low
$22.55
Quality & Growth
ROE
671.0%
ROA
180.2%
Gross Margin
9536.2%
Operating Margin
479.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.54
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 38.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.9x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 6.7%; Return on assets of 1.8%; Net margin of 4.7%; Gross margin of 95.4%; Current ratio of 14.10 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.54; Free cash flow per share is negative (-3.07); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.6%; EPS growth accelerating (-34.8% -> +90.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 58.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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