ESS · NYSE · STOCK
Essex Property Trust (ESS) Stock Analysis
$271.57
52W $238.46 – $303.35
51/100
$17.45B
42.2
0.71
Is ESS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Essex Property Trust (ESS) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.10 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.90 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.3% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 42.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- EPS declining -48.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.71 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 4.3% pays you to wait
− P/E of 42.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -48.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− Current ratio of 0.71 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.9 to 50.9.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
50.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.357
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$269.27
Resistance
$274.18
Bollinger %B
0.48
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$270.73
Above
EMA 21
$272.60
Below
EMA 50
$276.72
Below
EMA 200
$273.65
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
58
Growth
37
Profitability
78
Financial Health
31
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
42.2×
P/B Ratio
3.29×
PEG Ratio
-0.87
Dividend Yield
3.81%
52W High
$303.35
52W Low
$238.46
Quality & Growth
ROE
1213.6%
ROA
511.1%
Gross Margin
6938.1%
Operating Margin
2907.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.27
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 42.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.3x; PEG ratio of -0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.1%; Return on assets of 5.1%; Net margin of 21.6%; Gross margin of 69.4%; Current ratio of 0.36 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.27; Free cash flow per share is positive (16.17); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 34.4%; EPS growth decelerating (+32.0% -> -41.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -71.8%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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