MPT · NYSE · STOCK
Medical Properties Trust (MPT) Stock Analysis
$3.13
52W $3.08 – $6.47
44/100
$1.88B
-59.8
1.49
Is MPT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Medical Properties Trust, Inc. (MPT) Watch with a composite score of 44/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +15.71 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -4.29 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -0.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.11 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 20 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
44/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 97%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− ROE of only -0.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
41
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.11) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.40 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 44.7 to 44.3.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
20.4
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.011
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.02
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$3.29
Below
EMA 21
$3.47
Below
EMA 50
$3.81
Below
EMA 200
$4.50
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
15
Profitability
25
Financial Health
9
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-59.8×
P/B Ratio
0.42×
PEG Ratio
-0.11
Dividend Yield
11.46%
52W High
$6.47
52W Low
$3.08
Quality & Growth
ROE
-601.3%
ROA
-184.7%
Gross Margin
8248.0%
Operating Margin
5661.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.16
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -59.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 0.4x; PEG ratio of -0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -6.0%; Return on assets of -1.8%; Net margin of -3.0%; Gross margin of 82.5%; Current ratio of 0.31 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.16; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.38); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 231.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+66.7% -> -120.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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