NI · NYSE · STOCK
NiSource (NI) Stock Analysis
$40.77
52W $38.42 – $49.21
50/100
$19.54B
21.5
0.55
Is NI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates NiSource (NI) Watch with a composite score of 50/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.49 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.51 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 3 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.8% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 3 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -0.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
50/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 73%
of 56 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 3.8% pays you to wait
− Debt-to-equity of 1.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -0.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 3 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.5 to 49.5.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.244
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$40.74
Resistance
$44.20
Bollinger %B
0.76
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$40.19
Above
EMA 21
$40.27
Above
EMA 50
$41.42
Below
EMA 200
$43.65
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
13
Profitability
54
Financial Health
17
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
21.5×
P/B Ratio
2.04×
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
2.90%
52W High
$49.21
52W Low
$38.42
Quality & Growth
ROE
983.6%
ROA
254.3%
Gross Margin
5076.4%
Operating Margin
2702.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.83
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 21.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.0x; PEG ratio of -1932281271701277.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.8%; Return on assets of 2.5%; Net margin of 13.2%; Gross margin of 50.8%; Current ratio of 0.50 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.83; Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.26); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.1%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+107.8% -> -84.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -27.3%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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