NRG · NYSE · STOCK
NRG Energy (NRG) Stock Analysis
$103.75
52W $93.36 – $189.96
53/100
$21.62B
27.1
1.16
Is NRG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates NRG Energy (NRG) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 16, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.20 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.80 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2739.42). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 25.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.3% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 62.1% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 18.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 9.78 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 16, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 51%
of 56 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 25.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 18.2x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 62.1% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 9.78) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2739.42)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.5 to 52.8.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 67% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-15 to 2026-10-16 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.050
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.58
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$103.64
Above
EMA 21
$104.15
Below
EMA 50
$110.25
Below
EMA 200
$131.80
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
69
Growth
37
Profitability
36
Financial Health
7
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.1×
P/B Ratio
4.47×
PEG Ratio
0.45
Dividend Yield
1.81%
52W High
$189.96
52W Low
$93.36
Quality & Growth
ROE
5139.8%
ROA
296.5%
Gross Margin
1940.4%
Operating Margin
574.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
4.83
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.1 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.5x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 51.4%; Return on assets of 3.0%; Net margin of 2.6%; Gross margin of 19.4%; Current ratio of 0.97 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 4.83; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.65); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 13.1%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+43.7% -> +0.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -11.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full NRG Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →