PGR · NYSE · STOCK
Progressive (PGR) Stock Analysis
$217.40
52W $189.20 – $241.01
60/100
$126.41B
10.9
0.24
Is PGR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Progressive Corporation (PGR) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.24 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.76 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 27 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 49%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 27 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.8 to 59.8.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.131
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$203.22
Resistance
$224.93
Bollinger %B
0.74
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$213.71
Above
EMA 21
$213.08
Above
EMA 50
$213.50
Above
EMA 200
$214.78
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
46
Profitability
68
Financial Health
53
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.9×
P/B Ratio
25.82×
PEG Ratio
0.89
Dividend Yield
6.39%
52W High
$241.01
52W Low
$189.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
3729.2%
ROA
919.1%
Gross Margin
2690.6%
Operating Margin
1623.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.71
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 25.8x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 37.3%; Return on assets of 9.2%; Net margin of 12.8%; Gross margin of 26.9%; Current ratio of 1.60 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.71; Free cash flow per share is positive (27.36); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.5%; EPS growth decelerating (+6.2% -> -2.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -0.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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