PGR · NYSE · STOCK
Progressive (PGR) Stock Analysis
$219.33
52W $189.20 – $249.83
59/100
$127.49B
11.0
0.26
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is PGR Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Progressive Corporation (PGR) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +15.96 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -4.04 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.0 to 59.0.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.938
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$199.90
Resistance
$237.22
Bollinger %B
0.82
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$214.03
Above
EMA 21
$213.35
Above
EMA 50
$212.34
Above
EMA 200
$214.78
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
46
Profitability
68
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
11.0×
P/B Ratio
3.72×
PEG Ratio
0.90
Dividend Yield
6.34%
52W High
$249.83
52W Low
$189.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
3729.2%
ROA
919.1%
Gross Margin
2690.6%
Operating Margin
1623.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 11.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 37.3%; Return on assets of 9.2%; Net margin of 12.8%; Gross margin of 26.9%; Current ratio of 0.24 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.24; Free cash flow per share is positive (27.36); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.5%; EPS growth decelerating (+6.2% -> -2.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -0.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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