PGR · NASDAQ · STOCK
Progressive Corporation
$215.39
52W $189.20 – $254.93
60/100
$125.19B
10.8
0.25
Is PGR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Progressive Corporation (PGR) Watch with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 08, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.35 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.65 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 35.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 17 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 08, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 69%
of 142 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.23) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.09 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 17 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 50.9 to 59.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 40% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Risk Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 35->50 (+15).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 35->58 (+22); +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst joined: bullish at 64.
Comparing 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-08 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.118
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$199.90
Resistance
$237.22
Bollinger %B
0.57
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$213.76
Above
EMA 21
$214.26
Above
EMA 50
$212.37
Above
EMA 200
$215.07
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
89
Growth
46
Profitability
68
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.8×
P/B Ratio
3.66×
PEG Ratio
0.88
Dividend Yield
6.46%
52W High
$254.93
52W Low
$189.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
3729.2%
ROA
919.1%
Gross Margin
2690.6%
Operating Margin
1623.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 37.3%; Return on assets of 9.2%; Net margin of 12.8%; Gross margin of 26.9%; Current ratio of 0.24 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.24; Free cash flow per share is positive (27.36); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.5%; EPS growth decelerating (+6.2% -> -2.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -0.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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