SPG · NYSE · STOCK
Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Analysis
$199.44
52W $172.19 – $238.50
55/100
$64.67B
14.1
1.33
Is SPG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Simon Property Group (SPG) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.07 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.93 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 109.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.3% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 78.0% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 5.46 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.52 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 35%
of 80 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 14.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 78.0% YoY
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.9 to 54.9.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
34.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.107
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$180.41
Resistance
$205.07
Bollinger %B
0.14
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$200.76
Below
EMA 21
$203.53
Below
EMA 50
$208.76
Below
EMA 200
$204.04
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
8
Profitability
100
Financial Health
11
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.1×
P/B Ratio
14.57×
PEG Ratio
0.12
Dividend Yield
4.46%
52W High
$238.50
52W Low
$172.19
Quality & Growth
ROE
8860.9%
ROA
1136.5%
Gross Margin
8458.4%
Operating Margin
4739.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
6.64
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 14.6x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 88.6%; Return on assets of 11.4%; Net margin of 66.4%; Gross margin of 84.6%; Current ratio of 1.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 6.64; Free cash flow per share is positive (9.93); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 11.9%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+244.2% -> +0.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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