SPG · NYSE · STOCK
Simon Property Group (SPG) Stock Analysis
$218.32
52W $172.19 – $238.50
54/100
$70.79B
15.4
1.33
Is SPG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Simon Property Group (SPG) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 23, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.05 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.95 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 35 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 126.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 6.3% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 85.1% YoY — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 35 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 5.46 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.52 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 23, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 63%
of 79 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 126.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 11.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 85.1% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.46) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 35 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.0 to 54.0.
Comparing 2026-08-22 to 2026-08-23 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.769
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.21
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$220.99
Below
EMA 21
$222.62
Below
EMA 50
$220.58
Below
EMA 200
$203.21
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
66
Growth
43
Profitability
100
Financial Health
11
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.4×
P/B Ratio
15.95×
PEG Ratio
0.13
Dividend Yield
4.03%
52W High
$238.50
52W Low
$172.19
Quality & Growth
ROE
8860.9%
ROA
1136.5%
Gross Margin
8411.3%
Operating Margin
4811.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
6.64
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 16.0x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 88.6%; Return on assets of 11.4%; Net margin of 68.4%; Gross margin of 84.1%; Current ratio of 1.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 6.64; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.03); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 94.6%; EPS growth decelerating (+244.2% -> +122.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Get the Full SPG Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →