TLN · NASDAQ · STOCK
Talen Energy (TLN) Stock Analysis
$378.58
52W $279.77 – $449.84
47/100
$17.19B
-93.7
1.62
Is TLN Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Talen Energy (TLN) Watch with a composite score of 47/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +13.05 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -6.95 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 60.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 15.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -14.1% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 6.23 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 75 is in overbought territory — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
47/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 98%
of 56 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 15.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
47
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 60.8% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 75 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 6.23) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.6 to 47.0.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 58->48 (-10); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
75.0
Overbought
MACD Histogram
9.184
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$343.58
Resistance
$393.05
Bollinger %B
0.99
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$348.99
Above
EMA 21
$330.36
Above
EMA 50
$328.70
Above
EMA 200
$342.79
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
31
Profitability
15
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-93.7×
P/B Ratio
10.75×
PEG Ratio
-0.06
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$449.84
52W Low
$279.77
Quality & Growth
ROE
-2003.7%
ROA
-200.8%
Gross Margin
4457.4%
Operating Margin
731.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
5.92
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -93.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 10.8x; PEG ratio of -0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -20.0%; Return on assets of -2.0%; Net margin of -5.2%; Gross margin of 44.6%; Current ratio of 0.78 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 5.92; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.11); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 160.8%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+117.5% -> -250.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -233.3%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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