TLT · NASDAQ · ETF
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Analysis
$82.53
52W $81.17 – $92.19
60/100
$41.48B
—
2.40
Is TLT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 24, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.98 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.02 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- News sentiment is negative (-0.27 across 109 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 24, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 53%
of 212 Financial Services peers
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.27 across 109 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 60.0 to 60.0.
Comparing 2026-08-23 to 2026-08-24 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.091
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$81.44
Resistance
$83.43
Bollinger %B
0.32
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$82.24
Above
EMA 21
$82.67
Below
EMA 50
$83.66
Below
EMA 200
$85.38
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
P/E Ratio
—
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
—
52W High
$92.19
52W Low
$81.17
Quality & Growth
ROE
—
ROA
—
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
—
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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