TLT · NASDAQ · ETF
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Analysis
$81.32
52W $81.82 – $92.19
64/100
$41.47B
—
2.40
Is TLT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) Buy with a composite score of 64/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +10.69 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -9.31 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- News sentiment is negative (-0.20 across 79 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
64/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 210 Financial Services peers
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.20 across 79 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 65.4 to 64.3.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 55->51 (-4); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.026
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$81.44
Resistance
$83.43
Bollinger %B
0.18
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$82.42
Below
EMA 21
$83.00
Below
EMA 50
$84.01
Below
EMA 200
$85.55
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
P/E Ratio
—
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
—
52W High
$92.19
52W Low
$81.82
Quality & Growth
ROE
—
ROA
—
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
—
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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