TMHC · NASDAQ · STOCK
Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Stock Analysis
$72.45
52W $54.15 – $72.50
57/100
$6.67B
10.6
1.44
Is TMHC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Taylor Morrison (TMHC) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 02, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.79 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.21 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 10.0 is inexpensive for the broad market. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -9.0% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.45 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -9.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -22.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 78 is in overbought territory — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Negative filing: Delisting notice or failure to satisfy listing rule (9d ago) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 02, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
23
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -9.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 78 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d)
− Negative filing: Delisting notice or failure to satisfy listing rule (9d ago)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.5 to 57.2.
- Committee agreement increased modestly from 43% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-01 to 2026-08-02 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
78.0
Overbought
MACD Histogram
-0.225
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$64.84
Resistance
$75.38
Bollinger %B
0.93
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$72.25
Above
EMA 21
$71.67
Above
EMA 50
$69.09
Above
EMA 200
$64.51
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
43
Profitability
48
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.6×
P/B Ratio
1.11×
PEG Ratio
-0.48
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$72.50
52W Low
$54.15
Quality & Growth
ROE
1243.4%
ROA
795.4%
Gross Margin
2244.1%
Operating Margin
1315.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of -0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.4%; Return on assets of 8.0%; Net margin of 8.8%; Gross margin of 22.4%; Current ratio of 7.00 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.39; Free cash flow per share is positive (7.39); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 28.6%; EPS growth decelerating (-12.4% -> -36.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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