TXNM · NYSE · STOCK
TXNM Energy (TXNM) Stock Analysis
$58.60
52W $55.64 – $59.53
53/100
$6.49B
32.5
0.17
Is TXNM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates TXNM Energy (TXNM) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.60 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.40 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 32.8 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.65 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -7.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.55 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 42%
of 56 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 32.8 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -7.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.4 to 53.4.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.010
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$58.01
Resistance
$59.33
Bollinger %B
0.69
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$58.51
Above
EMA 21
$58.36
Above
EMA 50
$58.12
Above
EMA 200
$57.80
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
75
Growth
58
Profitability
37
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
15
Valuation
P/E Ratio
32.5×
P/B Ratio
1.83×
PEG Ratio
-4.50
Dividend Yield
2.86%
52W High
$59.53
52W Low
$55.64
Quality & Growth
ROE
444.7%
ROA
348.3%
Gross Margin
3955.9%
Operating Margin
2221.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.21
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 32.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of -4.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 4.4%; Return on assets of 3.5%; Net margin of 8.8%; Gross margin of 39.6%; Current ratio of 0.56 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.21; Free cash flow per share is negative (-4.51); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.6%; EPS growth accelerating (-56.3% -> +176.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 132.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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