USO · NASDAQ · ETF
United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF Analysis
$144.06
52W $65.99 – $163.35
56/100
$17.65B
—
2.22
Is USO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates United States Oil Fund (USO) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 4 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 22, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.73 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.27 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 31.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 31.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
- News sentiment is negative (-0.27 across 152 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 22, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
4
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 84%
of 212 Financial Services peers
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 31.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.27 across 152 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 4 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.4 to 56.3.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: score 65->80 (+15); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: score 45->55 (+10); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-21 to 2026-09-22 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.008
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$102.48
Resistance
$153.99
Bollinger %B
0.58
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$152.08
Below
EMA 21
$145.82
Below
EMA 50
$136.68
Above
EMA 200
$116.21
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
P/E Ratio
—
P/B Ratio
—
PEG Ratio
—
Dividend Yield
—
52W High
$163.35
52W Low
$65.99
Quality & Growth
ROE
—
ROA
—
Gross Margin
—
Operating Margin
—
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
—
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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