VST · NYSE · STOCK
Vistra (VST) Stock Analysis
$161.50
52W $132.66 – $217.10
51/100
$54.45B
27.0
1.39
Is VST Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Vistra Corp. (VST) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.94 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.06 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 41.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.10 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -4.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.78 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 66%
of 56 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 41.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -4.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.4 to 51.1.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 33% to 50%.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.715
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$142.64
Resistance
$168.42
Bollinger %B
0.98
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$152.70
Above
EMA 21
$147.60
Above
EMA 50
$146.61
Above
EMA 200
$156.10
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
51
Growth
25
Profitability
46
Financial Health
7
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
27.0×
P/B Ratio
10.01×
PEG Ratio
-4.02
Dividend Yield
0.57%
52W High
$217.10
52W Low
$132.66
Quality & Growth
ROE
1847.4%
ROA
227.2%
Gross Margin
1297.2%
Operating Margin
234.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 27.0 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 10.0x; PEG ratio of -4.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.5%; Return on assets of 2.3%; Net margin of 13.9%; Gross margin of 13.0%; Current ratio of 0.97 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.63; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.05); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 55.1%; EPS growth decelerating (+431.5% -> -73.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 7.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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