VST · NYSE · STOCK
Vistra (VST) Stock Analysis
$146.12
52W $132.66 – $219.82
56/100
$49.95B
24.7
1.43
Is VST Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Vistra Corp. (VST) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 18, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +19.18 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -0.82 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 43.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 54 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.10 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -5.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 18, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 41%
of 56 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 43.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -5.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 54 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.8 to 55.8.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-17 to 2026-08-18 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.003
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$142.64
Resistance
$168.42
Bollinger %B
0.43
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$146.31
Below
EMA 21
$149.16
Below
EMA 50
$152.47
Below
EMA 200
$161.94
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
54
Growth
52
Profitability
46
Financial Health
7
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.7×
P/B Ratio
9.18×
PEG Ratio
-3.69
Dividend Yield
0.61%
52W High
$219.82
52W Low
$132.66
Quality & Growth
ROE
1847.4%
ROA
227.2%
Gross Margin
1297.2%
Operating Margin
234.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.2x; PEG ratio of -3.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 18.5%; Return on assets of 2.3%; Net margin of 13.9%; Gross margin of 13.0%; Current ratio of 0.97 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.63; Free cash flow per share is positive (4.05); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 112.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-69.1% -> +431.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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