AAP vs TOL
Advance Auto Parts, Inc. vs Toll Brothers — AI-powered side-by-side comparison
AAP
Advance Auto Parts, Inc.
45
Watch
VS
| Metric | AAP | TOL |
|---|
| AI Score |
45
|
73
|
| Price |
$52.90
|
$152.94
|
| P/E Ratio |
72.21×
|
11.48×
|
| ROE |
2.0%
|
16.3%
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
—
|
—
|
| Gross Margin |
44.0%
|
24.9%
|
| Debt / Equity |
2.36×
|
0.34×
|
| Dividend Yield |
1.9%
|
0.7%
|
| RSI (14) |
32.8
|
46.8
|
| Beta |
1.065
|
1.34
|
| Expected Upside |
—
|
+2.4%
|
AI Committee View
Current Innellis committee reasoning for AAP versus TOL.
TOL leads by 28 points.
TOL scores 73/100 (Buy) versus AAP at 45/100 (Watch).
AAP Committee View
50% agreement
6 analysts
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -8.3% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 76.5 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 2.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.55 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
TOL Committee View
75% agreement
4 analysts
The primary driver is quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Most analysts agree, and no major concerns are blocking a stronger rating.
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 7.7% downside vs 2.4% upside.