AAP · NYSE · STOCK
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Stock Analysis
$42.30
52W $37.89 – $65.20
53/100
$2.55B
30.4
1.09
Is AAP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.40 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.60 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d). Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 30.0 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- ROE of only 3.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.55 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -1.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 74%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 30.0 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -1.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.55) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 4 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.3 to 52.6.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
61.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.577
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$40.69
Resistance
$54.67
Bollinger %B
0.66
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$41.11
Above
EMA 21
$41.76
Above
EMA 50
$45.22
Below
EMA 200
$50.53
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
80
Growth
95
Profitability
20
Financial Health
44
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
30.4×
P/B Ratio
1.13×
PEG Ratio
0.10
Dividend Yield
2.36%
52W High
$65.20
52W Low
$37.89
Quality & Growth
ROE
200.2%
ROA
37.2%
Gross Margin
4466.0%
Operating Margin
374.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 30.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.0%; Return on assets of 0.4%; Net margin of 1.0%; Gross margin of 44.7%; Current ratio of 1.75 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.31; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 26.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-10.5% -> +33.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 49.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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