AAP · NYSE · STOCK
Advance Auto Parts (AAP) Stock Analysis
$41.93
52W $37.89 – $65.20
57/100
$2.62B
31.2
1.03
Is AAP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Advance Auto Parts, Inc. (AAP) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.05 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.95 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- News sentiment is positive (+0.67 across 3 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 30.1 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- ROE of only 3.8% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.55 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -1.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 39%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 30.1 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -1.3% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.55) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.67 across 3 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.0 to 57.0.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
41.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.470
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$37.95
Resistance
$54.67
Bollinger %B
0.43
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$43.95
Below
EMA 21
$45.82
Below
EMA 50
$49.78
Below
EMA 200
$52.42
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
78
Growth
95
Profitability
20
Financial Health
44
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.2×
P/B Ratio
1.16×
PEG Ratio
0.10
Dividend Yield
2.30%
52W High
$65.20
52W Low
$37.89
Quality & Growth
ROE
200.2%
ROA
37.2%
Gross Margin
4466.0%
Operating Margin
374.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.31
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.2x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 2.0%; Return on assets of 0.4%; Net margin of 1.0%; Gross margin of 44.7%; Current ratio of 1.75 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.31; Free cash flow per share is positive (0.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 26.7%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-10.5% -> +33.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 49.3%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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