TOL · NYSE · STOCK
Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Analysis
$133.19
52W $123.15 – $168.36
59/100
$12.44B
10.6
1.30
Is TOL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Toll Brothers (TOL) Watch with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +0.95 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -19.05 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Risk Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 10.3 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -1.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -8.5% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 10.3 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -1.1% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.0 to 59.0.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.244
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$130.56
Resistance
$135.33
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$135.12
Below
EMA 21
$136.35
Below
EMA 50
$139.86
Below
EMA 200
$141.51
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
47
Profitability
60
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
10.6×
P/B Ratio
1.48×
PEG Ratio
-1.23
Dividend Yield
0.77%
52W High
$168.36
52W Low
$123.15
Quality & Growth
ROE
1628.0%
ROA
927.3%
Gross Margin
2424.7%
Operating Margin
1383.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.34
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 10.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.5x; PEG ratio of -1.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.3%; Return on assets of 9.3%; Net margin of 11.1%; Gross margin of 24.2%; Current ratio of 3.90 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.34; Free cash flow per share is positive (11.49); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.3%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+24.2% -> +9.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -20.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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