CMI vs GEO
Cummins vs The GEO Group, Inc. — AI-powered side-by-side comparison
VS
GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
70
Buy
| Metric | CMI | GEO |
|---|
| AI Score |
49
|
70
|
| Price |
$571.47
|
$32.19
|
| P/E Ratio |
29.09×
|
15.04×
|
| ROE |
23.0%
|
16.9%
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
—
|
—
|
| Gross Margin |
25.3%
|
42.4%
|
| Debt / Equity |
0.65×
|
1.06×
|
| Dividend Yield |
1.4%
|
0.0%
|
| RSI (14) |
18.6
|
60.6
|
| Beta |
1.246
|
0.779
|
| Expected Upside |
+8.1%
|
+0.1%
|
AI Committee View
Current Innellis committee reasoning for CMI versus GEO.
GEO leads by 21 points.
GEO scores 70/100 (Buy) versus CMI at 49/100 (Watch).
CMI Committee View
40% agreement
5 analysts
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -8.0% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull Case
- ROE of 21.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.0% pays you to wait — Value
Bear Case
- P/E of 32.3 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -8.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
GEO Committee View
83% agreement
6 analysts
The primary driver is p/e of 14.8 is inexpensive for the broad market. The main limiting factor is price trading above the upper bollinger band -- stretched. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
Bear Case
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 84 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical