GEO · NYSE · STOCK
The GEO Group, Inc.
$31.75
52W $12.51 – $32.62
68/100
$4.24B
14.8
0.78
Is GEO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Buy with a composite score of 68/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +6.58 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -13.42 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is p/e of 14.7 is inexpensive for the broad market. The main limiting factor is macd histogram negative -- bearish momentum. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 437.9% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
Bear Case
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 81 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
68/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 9%
of 223 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 437.9% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
63.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.100
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$25.08
Resistance
$32.08
Bollinger %B
0.90
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$30.96
Above
EMA 21
$30.59
Above
EMA 50
$28.76
Above
EMA 200
$23.26
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Profitability
65
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.8×
P/B Ratio
2.73×
PEG Ratio
0.06
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$32.62
52W Low
$12.51
Quality & Growth
ROE
1689.3%
ROA
661.8%
Gross Margin
4242.0%
Operating Margin
1116.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.06
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of 14.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.9%; Return on assets of 6.6%; Net margin of 10.3%; Gross margin of 42.4%; Current ratio of 1.65 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.06; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.23); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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