GEO · NYSE · STOCK
The GEO Group (GEO) Stock Analysis
$31.16
52W $12.51 – $33.17
69/100
$4.16B
14.5
0.77
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is GEO Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates The GEO Group, Inc. (GEO) Buy with a composite score of 69/100
, based on 5 analysts with 80% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +5.88 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -14.12 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 14.1 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 19.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 227.6% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 19.5% downside vs 3.0% upside.
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
69/100
Agreement
80%
Analysts
5
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 0%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 227.6% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 12 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 66.2 to 69.1.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: score 61->66 (+5); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.001
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$25.08
Resistance
$32.08
Bollinger %B
0.56
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$30.95
Above
EMA 21
$31.03
Above
EMA 50
$30.72
Above
EMA 200
$26.01
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
89
Profitability
65
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.5×
P/B Ratio
2.68×
PEG Ratio
0.06
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$33.17
52W Low
$12.51
Quality & Growth
ROE
1689.3%
ROA
661.8%
Gross Margin
4242.0%
Operating Margin
1116.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.06
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 16.9%; Return on assets of 6.6%; Net margin of 10.3%; Gross margin of 42.4%; Current ratio of 1.65 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.06; Free cash flow per share is positive (1.23); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 24.9%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+12.0% -> +32.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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