CMI · NYSE · STOCK
Cummins (CMI) Stock Analysis
$587.64
52W $389.52 – $737.76
48/100
$81.09B
29.9
1.25
Is CMI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Cummins (CMI) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 5 analysts with 40% agreement.
Last updated August 24, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.83 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.17 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -8.0% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 21.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.0% pays you to wait — Value
Bear Case
- P/E of 32.3 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -8.0% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 23 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 24, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
40%
Analysts
5
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 96%
of 226 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 21.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 32.3 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -8.0% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 23 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3069.37)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 48.2 to 48.2.
Comparing 2026-08-23 to 2026-08-24 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
23.2
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-4.098
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$528.13
Resistance
$617.95
Bollinger %B
-0.07
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$614.99
Below
EMA 21
$630.43
Below
EMA 50
$644.68
Below
EMA 200
$589.85
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
55
Growth
48
Profitability
59
Financial Health
85
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
29.9×
P/B Ratio
6.32×
PEG Ratio
-3.68
Dividend Yield
1.40%
52W High
$737.76
52W Low
$389.52
Quality & Growth
ROE
2302.2%
ROA
836.4%
Gross Margin
2532.0%
Operating Margin
1113.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 29.9 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.3x; PEG ratio of -3.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 23.0%; Return on assets of 8.4%; Net margin of 7.8%; Gross margin of 25.3%; Current ratio of 1.73 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.64; Free cash flow per share is positive (24.38); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 7.9%; EPS growth decelerating (+44.0% -> +9.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 4.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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