GEO vs UNP
The GEO Group, Inc. vs Union Pacific Corporation — AI-powered side-by-side comparison
GEO
The GEO Group, Inc.
70
Buy
VS
UNP
Union Pacific Corporation
54
Watch
| Metric | GEO | UNP |
|---|
| AI Score |
70
|
54
|
| Price |
$32.19
|
$309.82
|
| P/E Ratio |
15.29×
|
24.90×
|
| ROE |
16.9%
|
38.7%
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
—
|
—
|
| Gross Margin |
42.4%
|
45.5%
|
| Debt / Equity |
1.06×
|
1.51×
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.0%
|
1.8%
|
| RSI (14) |
69.6
|
74.8
|
| Beta |
0.779
|
0.965
|
| Expected Upside |
—
|
+2.4%
|
AI Committee View
Current Innellis committee reasoning for GEO versus UNP.
GEO leads by 16 points.
GEO scores 70/100 (Buy) versus UNP at 54/100 (Watch).
GEO Committee View
83% agreement
6 analysts
The primary driver is p/e of 14.8 is inexpensive for the broad market. The main limiting factor is price trading above the upper bollinger band -- stretched. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.5x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
Bear Case
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Daily trend (uptrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (downtrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 84 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
UNP Committee View
50% agreement
6 analysts
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull Case
- ROE of 38.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- RSI at 75 is in overbought territory — Technical