UNP · NYSE · STOCK
Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Analysis
$299.87
52W $210.84 – $315.99
59/100
$174.47B
23.7
0.96
Is UNP Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Buy with a composite score of 59/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated August 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.26 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.74 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 38.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.91 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 56%
of 223 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 38.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 20 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2963.04)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.7 to 58.7.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-08-16 to 2026-08-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
49.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.940
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.42
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$294.37
Above
EMA 21
$292.75
Above
EMA 50
$285.04
Above
EMA 200
$260.80
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
22
Growth
76
Profitability
91
Financial Health
33
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.7×
P/B Ratio
8.43×
PEG Ratio
3.30
Dividend Yield
1.88%
52W High
$315.99
52W Low
$210.84
Quality & Growth
ROE
3865.3%
ROA
1024.1%
Gross Margin
4552.5%
Operating Margin
3992.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.4x; PEG ratio of 3.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 38.7%; Return on assets of 10.2%; Net margin of 28.8%; Gross margin of 45.5%; Current ratio of 0.99 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.51; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.96); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+2.4% -> +16.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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