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Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Analysis

Industrials Updated August 24, 2026
$309.82
52W $210.84 – $315.99
54/100
$183.00B
24.9
0.96
AI Committee Verdict
Watch
54/100
Conviction: Contested · 50% agreement · 6 analysts
+2.4%
-17.1%
0.14:1
Contested

Is UNP Bullish or Bearish?

Mixed. Innellis AI committee rates Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Watch with a composite score of 54/100 , based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement. Last updated August 24, 2026.

What Would Change This View

Upgrade to Buy
Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.57 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
Downgrade to Reduce
Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.43 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.

Executive Summary

The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.

Bull & Bear Case

Bull Case
  • ROE of 38.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
  • Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
  • Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
  • MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
  • Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
  • Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
  • Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
  • Debt-to-equity of 1.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
  • RSI at 75 is in overbought territory — Technical
  • Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
  • High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
  • Current ratio of 0.91 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)

AI Investment Committee

Committee Consensus As of August 24, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 226 Industrials peers
Value Analyst neutral
50 / 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 38.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst bullish
62 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst bullish
61 / 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 75 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst bearish
32 / 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst bullish
65 / 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst neutral
55 / 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager neutral
45 / 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
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Investment Thesis Evolution

Committee score moved marginally from 54.4 to 54.4.

Analyst-level changes:
  • Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).

Comparing 2026-08-23 to 2026-08-24 (1 day apart).

Technical Analysis

RSI (14)
74.8
Overbought
MACD Histogram
0.615
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$255.50
Resistance
$315.51
Bollinger %B
1.14
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$300.53 Above
EMA 21
$296.62 Above
EMA 50
$288.24 Above
EMA 200
$262.84 Above

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation
20
Growth
76
Profitability
91
Financial Health
33
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio 24.9×
P/B Ratio 8.84×
PEG Ratio 3.46
Dividend Yield 1.79%
52W High $315.99
52W Low $210.84
Quality & Growth
ROE 3865.3%
ROA 1024.1%
Gross Margin 4552.5%
Operating Margin 3992.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
Debt / Equity 1.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.8x; PEG ratio of 3.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 38.7%; Return on assets of 10.2%; Net margin of 28.8%; Gross margin of 45.5%; Current ratio of 0.99 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.51; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.96); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+2.4% -> +16.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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