UNP · NYSE · STOCK
Union Pacific (UNP) Stock Analysis
$278.29
52W $215.53 – $315.99
54/100
$165.35B
22.5
0.95
Is UNP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.06 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.94 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 38.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.72 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.91 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 227 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 38.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 7.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.72) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.3 to 53.9.
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
54.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.039
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$255.50
Resistance
$279.63
Bollinger %B
0.60
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$276.57
Above
EMA 21
$278.83
Below
EMA 50
$282.98
Below
EMA 200
$268.88
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
23
Growth
76
Profitability
91
Financial Health
33
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.5×
P/B Ratio
7.99×
PEG Ratio
3.13
Dividend Yield
2.00%
52W High
$315.99
52W Low
$215.53
Quality & Growth
ROE
3865.3%
ROA
1024.1%
Gross Margin
4552.5%
Operating Margin
3992.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 8.0x; PEG ratio of 3.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 38.7%; Return on assets of 10.2%; Net margin of 28.8%; Gross margin of 45.5%; Current ratio of 0.99 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.51; Free cash flow per share is positive (10.96); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.1%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+2.4% -> +16.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 12.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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