TOL vs VAC
Toll Brothers vs Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation — AI-powered side-by-side comparison
VS
VAC
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
54
Watch
| Metric | TOL | VAC |
|---|
| AI Score |
73
|
54
|
| Price |
$152.94
|
$115.15
|
| P/E Ratio |
11.48×
|
-12.01×
|
| ROE |
16.3%
|
-15.5%
|
| Revenue Growth YoY |
—
|
—
|
| Gross Margin |
24.9%
|
27.4%
|
| Debt / Equity |
0.34×
|
2.65×
|
| Dividend Yield |
0.7%
|
2.8%
|
| RSI (14) |
46.8
|
62.9
|
| Beta |
1.34
|
1.236
|
| Expected Upside |
+2.4%
|
—
|
AI Committee View
Current Innellis committee reasoning for TOL versus VAC.
TOL leads by 19 points.
TOL scores 73/100 (Buy) versus VAC at 54/100 (Watch).
TOL Committee View
75% agreement
4 analysts
The primary driver is quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Most analysts agree, and no major concerns are blocking a stronger rating.
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 7.7% downside vs 2.4% upside.
VAC Committee View
33% agreement
6 analysts
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.1% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -15.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.85 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk