VAC · NYSE · STOCK
Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Stock Analysis
$101.53
52W $44.58 – $131.34
54/100
$3.47B
-10.6
1.24
Is VAC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated September 17, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 8 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 8 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- ROE of only -15.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.85 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 23.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of September 17, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -15.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.25 across 8 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2514.55)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.7 to 53.7.
Comparing 2026-09-16 to 2026-09-17 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
40.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.923
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$92.65
Resistance
$105.97
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$102.91
Below
EMA 21
$105.33
Below
EMA 50
$103.63
Below
EMA 200
$86.26
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
75
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-10.6×
P/B Ratio
1.71×
PEG Ratio
0.05
Dividend Yield
3.16%
52W High
$131.34
52W Low
$44.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1545.4%
ROA
-315.7%
Gross Margin
2092.5%
Operating Margin
1107.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -10.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.7x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -15.5%; Return on assets of -3.2%; Net margin of -7.1%; Gross margin of 20.9%; Current ratio of 3.42 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.84); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 16.3%; EPS growth accelerating (-33.3% -> +86.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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