VAC · NYSE · STOCK
Marriott Vacations Worldwide (VAC) Stock Analysis
$105.49
52W $44.58 – $131.34
56/100
$3.62B
-11.0
1.30
Is VAC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.67 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.33 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The primary driver is price structure making higher highs and higher lows. The main limiting factor is high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. The committee is constructive but not yet at full conviction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- ROE of only -15.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.85 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 48%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -15.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.18 across 11 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.5 to 56.3.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->69 (+10); +2 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.458
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$92.65
Resistance
$105.97
Bollinger %B
0.88
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$103.82
Above
EMA 21
$103.74
Above
EMA 50
$103.40
Above
EMA 200
$89.03
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
75
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-11.0×
P/B Ratio
1.78×
PEG Ratio
0.05
Dividend Yield
3.04%
52W High
$131.34
52W Low
$44.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1545.4%
ROA
-315.7%
Gross Margin
2092.5%
Operating Margin
1107.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -11.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -15.5%; Return on assets of -3.2%; Net margin of -7.1%; Gross margin of 20.9%; Current ratio of 3.42 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.84); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 16.3%; EPS growth accelerating (-33.3% -> +86.3% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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