VAC · NYSE · STOCK
Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation
$115.15
52W $44.58 – $131.34
54/100
$3.94B
-12.0
1.24
Is VAC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation (VAC) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 6 analysts with 33% agreement.
Last updated August 11, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.90 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.10 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — vix regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.1% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -15.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.85 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 34.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
33%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 76%
of 178 Consumer Cyclical peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -15.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.85) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
78
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ VIX regime is low -- calm backdrop supports risk-taking
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− 2 existing position pair(s) are highly correlated already
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
62.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.818
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.84
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$110.30
Above
EMA 21
$104.74
Above
EMA 50
$97.45
Above
EMA 200
$80.14
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Profitability
5
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-12.0×
P/B Ratio
1.94×
PEG Ratio
0.06
Dividend Yield
2.78%
52W High
$131.34
52W Low
$44.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
-1545.4%
ROA
-315.7%
Gross Margin
2744.1%
Operating Margin
1088.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
[reduced confidence: limited earnings history] P/E ratio of -12.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -15.5%; Return on assets of -3.2%; Net margin of -7.1%; Gross margin of 27.4%; Current ratio of 3.42 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.65; Free cash flow per share is positive (2.84); Earnings-history trend unavailable; growth based on TTM year-over-year only.
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