AFL · NYSE · STOCK
Aflac (AFL) Stock Analysis
$116.52
52W $104.66 – $130.22
56/100
$60.16B
12.7
0.59
Is AFL Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Aflac (AFL) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 50% agreement.
Last updated August 25, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.08 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.92 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 13.0 is inexpensive for the broad market. Technical Analyst remains cautious — rsi at 20 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 13.0 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 16.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 37.5% YoY — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.28) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 20 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.04 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 25, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
50%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 68%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 13.0 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 37.5% YoY
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 20 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.28) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.04 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3063.01)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.9 to 55.9.
Comparing 2026-08-24 to 2026-08-25 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.929
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$111.81
Resistance
$119.09
Bollinger %B
0.22
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$119.08
Below
EMA 21
$121.08
Below
EMA 50
$120.86
Below
EMA 200
$115.29
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
44
Profitability
69
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.7×
P/B Ratio
1.97×
PEG Ratio
0.12
Dividend Yield
2.04%
52W High
$130.22
52W Low
$104.66
Quality & Growth
ROE
1236.3%
ROA
313.0%
Gross Margin
5391.2%
Operating Margin
3215.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.0x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.4%; Return on assets of 3.1%; Net margin of 26.9%; Gross margin of 53.9%; Current ratio of 11.31 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.29; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.25); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.0%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+11.5% -> +0.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -1.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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