AFL · NYSE · STOCK
Aflac (AFL) Stock Analysis
$114.54
52W $105.43 – $130.22
62/100
$58.30B
12.3
0.56
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is AFL Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Aflac (AFL) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated October 10, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.67 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 11.9 is inexpensive for the broad market. Portfolio Manager remains cautious — sector concentration is already high (hhi 2796.97). This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 11.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 16.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 111.0% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.28) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.04 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of October 10, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 38%
of 211 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 11.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
51
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 111.0% YoY
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.28) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.04 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.23 across 13 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
The existing book itself argues for caution here, independent of how good this specific stock looks
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2796.97)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 61.8 to 61.7.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-10-09 to 2026-10-10 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.307
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$111.81
Resistance
$115.30
Bollinger %B
0.53
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$113.63
Above
EMA 21
$114.33
Above
EMA 50
$116.26
Below
EMA 200
$115.20
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
98
Growth
44
Profitability
69
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
70
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.3×
P/B Ratio
1.90×
PEG Ratio
0.11
Dividend Yield
2.10%
52W High
$130.22
52W Low
$105.43
Quality & Growth
ROE
1236.3%
ROA
313.0%
Gross Margin
5391.2%
Operating Margin
3215.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.3 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.9x; PEG ratio of 0.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 12.4%; Return on assets of 3.1%; Net margin of 26.9%; Gross margin of 53.9%; Current ratio of 11.31 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.29; Free cash flow per share is positive (5.25); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.0%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+11.5% -> +0.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -1.7%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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